Philadelphias Next Mayor - A Prediction

I don't know if he will run, but John Dougherty will win the mayors election if he decides to. Do you want to know why?

a) He runs a major union in the city. That is a guaranteed voting block. And that's not the only useful thing. His members will also support him financially. Lastly, and this is most important, having this huge block of votes gains him clout and will help other people (financial supporters, and voters) swing his way. Who would you rather give money to? They guy with 15% of the vote already locked up or someone with 0?

b) He is a man of the people. This guy is not a flashy politician. He's a humble man from the neighborhood who happens to run a union. He cares about local issues. Now those in the know know that he is in fact a politician (which is an important feature for any candidate.. a regular joe cannot win an election in Philadelphia) and has been involved in city politics for quite sometime, but he does it away from the press and the people. He seems like a regular guy and most voters want a regular guy. They are sick of politicans thanks to the federal crap that is going on.. and no D or R means nothing here. People hate all politicians and think they are all criminals.

c) His skin is a different color than John Street. Yup, it's partially a race thing. But not in the obvioous sense of whites wanting to elect a white candidate, but in the sense that most people think Street is a terrible mayor and they want a change. I believe that people will sub-conciously select a white candidate not becasue they are white, but becasue they simply couldn't be more different visually than John Street.

d) He can win the primary because he is white. Black voters make up over 50% of the city and from what I can tell, there may be 2 black democratic candidates in the primary. This should split the hard core "We'll elect any black candidate" black voters somewhat making it an election where you probably would only need 15% of the vote.